Eff's Rambles (Archive)

9/09/2003

Gambling

It was within a few days, I had recently read a column I had been procrastinating on for a month. The column was, I think, pro Isreali and kind of cynical in tone, if I remember correctly. Well, in the column the author brought up the idea that never went anywhere of using the stock market to predict terrorist events in the future. Politically, it was a rather bad idea. One thing it supposedly had was a bet on how much longer the king of Jordan would remain in power. The author wondered about whether or not money could be made off Palestinian's propensity to destroy themselves, or something like that.

As I said, it was within a few days. And that was when I started to hear of, or was reminded of, I guess the latter, Abu Mazen's no confidence hearing. I think most people would agree that he would not have won a vote of confidence, at least not a sincere one. Surely, the popular will would not have changed much, if any. I mention the betting idea and Mazen because I was surprised by something. Not long after reading the column and hearing of the the no confidence hearing, I remarked to a few people that Mazen would quit and, sarcastically, move to Beirut or Belgium (among other places) after a short period of time, join the talk circuit or get some job in media or academics. I also said he might join up with Mohammed al-Douri. He quit barely a day or two after my partially sarcastic comment. I doubt I was the only one to have predicted it.

Some spokesman is being considered for the PM position. I've heard he does not want Arafat to be treated as if he's an irrelevancy. And that is not what the Bush administration wants to hear. He is supposedly a moderate like Mazen.

What I find interesting is the notion of whether or not this is a failure, not of the "road map," but of the, as best I understand it, domino effect theory of defeating Saddam Hussein. Whether it "worked" in getting the "road map" pushed through is best answered by historians and biographers. But what was gained, due to whatever reason(s), now looks to be lost. I am not so negative that I think nothing can be salvaged, but things do not look good.

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